Ecuador 2–1 Germany
Ecuador edged a balanced game 2–1 (1.27–0.65 xG).
Quick answers
- ResultWho won Ecuador vs Germany?
- Ecuador won 2–1. The xG was Ecuador 1.27, Germany 0.65.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in Ecuador vs Germany?
- Ecuador had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.27–0.65 and winning 2–1.
- Fair resultWas Ecuador 2–1 Germany fair by xG?
- Yes. Ecuador won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Ecuador turned a clear xG edge (1.27–0.65) into the full three points, finishing with 1.84 xPts (Δ +1.16).
- Ranking contextWas Ecuador 2–1 Germany a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Yes — and it was backed by xG. Ecuador entered 21st of 48 in the World Cup field; Germany entered 10th of 48. Ecuador won with the scoreline Ecuador 2–1 Germany and led the chance quality 1.27–0.65 xG.
Ecuador finished third despite 5.51 xPts: Ecuador were second in Group E by xPts, but Ivory Coast took the automatic slot with 6 points from 4.69 xPts.
| Score | 2–1 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Ecuador 1.27 · Germany 0.65 |
| Expected points (xPts) | Ecuador 1.84 · Germany 0.87 |
| Stage | Group E |
| Published FIFA rank | Ecuador FIFA #23 (21st of 48) · Germany FIFA #10 (10th of 48) |
Who had the better xG in Ecuador vs Germany?
Ecuador created the better chances — 1.27–0.65 xG, an edge of 0.62. And Ecuador duly won 2–1, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Ecuador earned 1.84 and Germany 0.87 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +1.16 for Ecuador, -0.87 for Germany).
Was Ecuador lucky or unlucky?
Ecuador were clinical in front of goal — 2 goals from 1.27 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.65 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +1.16).
Was Germany lucky or unlucky?
Germany were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.65 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 2 from only 1.27 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.87).
What Ecuador 2–1 Germany means for Group E
Ecuador sit 3rd in Group E on 4 points (5.51 xPts, Δ -1.51); Germany sit 1st on 6 points (5.57 xPts, Δ +0.43). See the full Group E table →
25 June xG recap · Ecuador · Germany · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results