How lucky or unlucky were Germany in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.57 xPts (points luck +0.43) and 4 goals conceded from 2.90 xGA (defensive luck -1.10). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Germany's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Germany finish in Group E?

Germany finished first in Group E with 6 points from 5.57 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.43).

What are Germany's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Germany have 6.76 group-stage xGF and 2.90 group-stage xGA, plus 1.57 knockout xGF and 0.35 knockout xGA. Total: 8.33 xGF, 3.25 xGA.

What was Germany's best xG match?

Germany's highest-xGF match was 7–1 vs Curacao: 4.22 xG for and 0.41 xG against.

Germany at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Germany are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 74 against Paraguay. Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay; Germany 1.57–0.35 Paraguay xG.

Germany have 10 goals from 6.76 xG, a clear clinical-finishing group-stage read.

Next for Germany

Knockout result

Germany vs Paraguay

Match 74 (Round of 32) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

1–1 vs Paraguay

Knockout stage · xG 1.57-0.35 · eliminated on penalties 3-4

Group table

Group E finish

6 points from 5.57 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Germany eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Germany are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 74 against Paraguay. Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay; Germany 1.57–0.35 Paraguay xG.
Clinical finishingHow lucky or unlucky were Germany in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 6 points from 5.57 xPts (points luck +0.43) and 4 goals conceded from 2.90 xGA (defensive luck -1.10). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Germany's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Germany finish in Group E?: Germany finished first in Group E with 6 points from 5.57 group-stage xPts (Δ +0.43).
xG by stageWhat are Germany's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Germany have 6.76 group-stage xGF and 2.90 group-stage xGA, plus 1.57 knockout xGF and 0.35 knockout xGA. Total: 8.33 xGF, 3.25 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Germany's best xG match?: Germany's highest-xGF match was 7–1 vs Curacao: 4.22 xG for and 0.41 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	10–4	6.76 / 2.90	+3.86	5.58	Official group-table scope
Knockout	1	1–1	1.57 / 0.35	+1.22	2.29	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	4	11–5	8.33 / 3.25	+5.08	7.87	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Germany eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Germany are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 74 against Paraguay. Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay; Germany 1.57–0.35 Paraguay xG. Germany vs Paraguay xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-1 vs ParaguayKnockout stage · xG 1.57-0.35 · match xPts 2.29 · eliminated on penalties 3-4

Group-stage match receipts

7-1 vs CuracaoxG 4.22-0.41 · xPts 2.89 · Δ +0.11
2-1 vs Ivory CoastxG 1.89-1.22 · xPts 1.82 · Δ +1.18
1-2 vs EcuadorxG 0.65-1.27 · xPts 0.87 · Δ -0.87

Featured story

BREAKING:

Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge

Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.

Group E story

Ecuador finished third despite 5.51 xPts

Ecuador were second in Group E by xPts, but Ivory Coast took the automatic slot with 6 points from 4.69 xPts.

Schedule context

Germany are +3.86 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 32.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #46.0 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group E · 1st in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 74 vs Paraguay
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #12 · 12th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 32.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #46.0 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 2W 0D 1L
Group-stage points	6
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	5.57
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	+0.43
Group-stage goals for / against	10 / 4
Group-stage xG for / against	6.76 / 2.90
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+3.24
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-1.10

Where Germany sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Germany sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are clinical but leaky.

See Germany on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Germany 7–1 Curacao

Germany had their strongest chance profile against Curacao, winning the xG battle 4.22–0.41.

Most unlucky result

Germany vs Ecuador

Germany took 0 points from 0.87 xPts (Δ -0.87).

Most fortunate result

Germany vs Ivory Coast

Germany took 3 points from 1.82 xPts (Δ +1.18).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
14 June	v Curacao	7–1	4.22–0.41	2.89	+0.11
20 June	v Ivory Coast	2–1	1.89–1.22	1.82	+1.18
25 June	@ Ecuador	1–2	0.65–1.27	0.87	-0.87

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Germany took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
29 June	v Paraguay	1–1	1.57–0.35	2.29	Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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