Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay
Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG) but were knocked out 1–1 (3–4 pens); Paraguay advanced against the xG run.
Quick answers
- ResultWho won Germany vs Paraguay?
- Paraguay advanced on penalties after 1–1 (3–4 pens). The xG was Germany 1.57, Paraguay 0.35.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in Germany vs Paraguay?
- Germany had the better xG profile, leading the chance quality 1.57–0.35, but Paraguay advanced on penalties after 1–1 (3–4 pens).
- Fair resultWas Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay fair by xG?
- No by chance quality. Paraguay advanced on penalties, but Germany had the stronger xG profile.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Paraguay advanced, but Germany had the stronger chance profile (1.57–0.35 xG). Match xPts: Germany 2.29, Paraguay 0.48. In knockouts, xPts is chance context only; the score decides who advances.
- Ranking contextWas Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Yes on the scoreboard, but not by xG. Paraguay entered 33rd of 48 in the World Cup field; Germany entered 10th of 48. Paraguay advanced after Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay, while the xG was 0.35–1.57 from the lower-ranked team's view.
Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge: Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.
| Score | 1–1 (3–4 pens) |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35 |
| Match xPts | Germany 2.29 · Paraguay 0.48 |
| Stage | Knockout stage |
| Published FIFA rank | Germany FIFA #10 (10th of 48) · Paraguay FIFA #41 (33rd of 48) |
Who had the better xG in Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany created the better chances — 1.57–0.35 xG, an edge of 1.22. Yet Paraguay advanced on penalties after 1–1 (3–4 pens), a result that defied the expected goals. Match xPts were Germany 2.29 and Paraguay 0.48; in a knockout match, xPts is chance context only and the score decides advancement.
Was Germany lucky or unlucky?
Germany were wasteful in front of goal — just 1 from 1.57 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 1 from only 0.35 xGA faced. They were eliminated on penalties despite the stronger chance profile.
Was Paraguay lucky or unlucky?
Paraguay were clinical in front of goal — 1 goal from 0.35 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 1 from 1.57 xGA faced. They advanced on penalties despite the weaker chance profile.
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