World Cup 2026 xG story · 29 June

Morocco advanced on penalties over Netherlands with the stronger xG profile

Morocco still had to survive the shootout, but the chance profile was not a coin flip. The match finished level on the scoreboard; the expected-goals ledger pointed clearly toward Morocco before penalties decided the bracket.

A shootout win backed by the chances

Penalty shootouts can make a result feel random. This one is more grounded than that. Morocco created the better chances in open play, kept Netherlands to a thin chance profile, and then finished the job from the spot. The xG read is simple: the shootout was tense, but Morocco had already built the stronger case.

What the expected goals say

Morocco created the better chances — 1.38–0.24 xG, an edge of 1.14. And Morocco advanced on penalties after 1–1 (2–3 pens), with the chance profile pointing the same way. Match xPts were Netherlands 0.46 and Morocco 2.27; in a knockout match, xPts is chance context only and the score decides advancement.

How each side fared

Netherlands were clinical in front of goal — 1 goal from 0.24 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 1.38 xGA). Their elimination on penalties matched the weaker chance profile.

Morocco were about on script in attack — 1 from 1.38 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 1 from only 0.24 xGA faced. They advanced on penalties with the stronger chance profile.

What it means for the tournament luck table

See the full Netherlands vs Morocco xG breakdown, the Netherlands luck tracker and Morocco luck tracker, or put it in context against the biggest xG robberies, the unluckiest teams and the overperformers of the World Cup 2026.