Germany eliminated despite 1.57-0.35 xG edge
Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.
World Cup 2026 Round of 16 · Match 90 · latest available post-match xG updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET
Paraguay and France are confirmed for Match 90. This guide compares total tournament xG, group-stage xG form, and each team's Round of 32 receipt. It is not a prediction.
Paraguay advanced after 1–1 (3–4 pens); Germany had the stronger chance profile, but the shootout swung the bracket.
Turkiye were first in Group D by xPts and xGF but finished fourth. The Paraguay loss remains the swing: 2.17-0.32 xG, zero points.
Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay.
Match xG: Germany 1.57 · Paraguay 0.35
France 3–0 Sweden.
Match xG: France 3.24 · Sweden 0.70
Paraguay reached this round through Germany 1–1 (3–4 pens) Paraguay, with 0.35-1.57 xG against Germany.
France reached this round through France 3–0 Sweden, with 3.24-0.70 xG against Sweden.
Paraguay reached this slot as winner of Match 74. Their total tournament xG line is xGF 1.45, xGA 5.71, xGD -4.26; the group-stage baseline was 4 group points, 1.88 group-stage xPts, xGF 1.10, xGA 4.14, points-vs-xPts Δ +2.12.
France reached this slot as winner of Match 77. Their total tournament xG line is xGF 9.20, xGA 3.56, xGD +5.64; the group-stage baseline was 9 group points, 6.07 group-stage xPts, xGF 5.96, xGA 2.86, points-vs-xPts Δ +2.93.
The official bracket decides the matchup. These numbers describe completed xG-backed matches only: group-stage xG, prior knockout xG, and total tournament xG.
More context: World Cup 2026 bracket · results and xG · Paraguay team page · France team page.