Morocco advanced on penalties with a 1.38-0.24 xG edge
After 1–1 (2–3 pens), Morocco had the stronger chance profile and won the shootout; Netherlands were held to 0.24 xG.
World Cup 2026 Round of 16 · Match 89 · latest available post-match xG updated 2 July 2026, 02:56 ET
Canada and Morocco are confirmed for Match 89. This guide compares total tournament xG, group-stage xG form, and each team's Round of 32 receipt. It is not a prediction.
After 1–1 (2–3 pens), Morocco had the stronger chance profile and won the shootout; Netherlands were held to 0.24 xG.
South Africa 0–1 Canada.
Match xG: South Africa 0.14 · Canada 1.38
Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco.
Match xG: Netherlands 0.24 · Morocco 1.38
Canada reached this round through South Africa 0–1 Canada, with 1.38-0.14 xG against South Africa.
Morocco reached this round through Netherlands 1–1 (2–3 pens) Morocco, with 1.38-0.24 xG against Netherlands.
Canada reached this slot as winner of Match 73. Their total tournament xG line is xGF 8.87, xGA 2.43, xGD +6.44; the group-stage baseline was 4 group points, 6.24 group-stage xPts, xGF 7.49, xGA 2.29, points-vs-xPts Δ -2.24.
Morocco reached this slot as winner of Match 75. Their total tournament xG line is xGF 7.50, xGA 3.23, xGD +4.27; the group-stage baseline was 7 group points, 5.76 group-stage xPts, xGF 6.12, xGA 2.99, points-vs-xPts Δ +1.24.
The official bracket decides the matchup. These numbers describe completed xG-backed matches only: group-stage xG, prior knockout xG, and total tournament xG.
More context: World Cup 2026 bracket · results and xG · Canada team page · Morocco team page.