How lucky or unlucky were Canada in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 4 points from 6.24 xPts (points luck -2.24) and 3 goals conceded from 2.29 xGA (defensive luck -0.71). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Canada's group-stage luck built game by game.

Where did Canada finish in Group B?

Canada finished second in Group B with 4 points from 6.24 group-stage xPts (Δ -2.24).

What are Canada's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Canada have 7.49 group-stage xGF and 2.29 group-stage xGA, plus 2.22 knockout xGF and 0.96 knockout xGA. Total: 9.71 xGF, 3.25 xGA.

What was Canada's best xG match?

Canada's highest-xGF match was 6–0 vs Qatar: 4.60 xG for and 0.22 xG against.

Canada at the 2026 World Cup

Eliminated

Canada are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 89 against Morocco. Canada 0–3 Morocco; Canada 0.84–0.82 Morocco xG.

Canada have 4 points from 6.24 xPts, a clear group-stage case of results trailing the chances.

Next for Canada

Knockout result

Canada vs Morocco

Match 89 (Round of 16) result page with score, match xG and advancement context.

Latest xG match

0–3 vs Morocco

Knockout stage · xG 0.84-0.82 · eliminated

Group table

Group B finish

4 points from 6.24 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

EliminatedAre Canada eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Canada are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 89 against Morocco. Canada 0–3 Morocco; Canada 0.84–0.82 Morocco xG.
Deserved betterHow lucky or unlucky were Canada in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 4 points from 6.24 xPts (points luck -2.24) and 3 goals conceded from 2.29 xGA (defensive luck -0.71). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Canada's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Canada finish in Group B?: Canada finished second in Group B with 4 points from 6.24 group-stage xPts (Δ -2.24).
xG by stageWhat are Canada's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Canada have 7.49 group-stage xGF and 2.29 group-stage xGA, plus 2.22 knockout xGF and 0.96 knockout xGA. Total: 9.71 xGF, 3.25 xGA.
Best xG matchWhat was Canada's best xG match?: Canada's highest-xGF match was 6–0 vs Qatar: 4.60 xG for and 0.22 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	8–3	7.49 / 2.29	+5.20	6.24	Official group-table scope
Knockout	2	1–3	2.22 / 0.96	+1.26	3.71	Match xPts is chance context only
Total	5	9–6	9.71 / 3.25	+6.46	9.95	All completed xG-backed matches

Knockout status

EliminatedAre Canada eliminated from the World Cup 2026?: Canada are eliminated from the World Cup 2026 after Match 89 against Morocco. Canada 0–3 Morocco; Canada 0.84–0.82 Morocco xG. Canada vs Morocco xG guide/result.

Knockout receipts

1-0 vs South AfricaKnockout stage · xG 1.38-0.14 · match xPts 2.37 · advanced
0-3 vs MoroccoKnockout stage · xG 0.84-0.82 · match xPts 1.34 · eliminated

Group-stage match receipts

1-1 vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaxG 1.23-0.96 · xPts 1.56 · Δ -0.56
6-0 vs QatarxG 4.60-0.22 · xPts 2.93 · Δ +0.07
1-2 vs SwitzerlandxG 1.66-1.11 · xPts 1.75 · Δ -1.75

Schedule context

Canada are +5.20 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 31.3/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #44.7 globally; led xG against a lighter opponent field.

Group	Group B · 2nd in group
Knockout status	Eliminated Out after Match 89 vs Morocco
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #30 · 27th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 31.3 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #44.7 · led xG against a lighter opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 1W 1D 1L
Group-stage points	4
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	6.24
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-2.24
Group-stage goals for / against	8 / 3
Group-stage xG for / against	7.49 / 2.29
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	+0.51
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.71

Where Canada sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Canada sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are deserved better.

See Canada on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Canada 6–0 Qatar

Canada had their strongest chance profile against Qatar, winning the xG battle 4.60–0.22.

Most unlucky result

Canada vs Switzerland

Canada took 0 points from 1.75 xPts (Δ -1.75).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
12 June	v Bosnia and Herzegovina	1–1	1.23–0.96	1.56	-0.56
18 June	v Qatar	6–0	4.60–0.22	2.93	+0.07
24 June	@ Switzerland	1–2	1.66–1.11	1.75	-1.75

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Canada took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

Knockout match by match

Date	Match	Score	Knockout xG	Match xPts	Verdict
28 June	@ South Africa	1–0	1.38–0.14	2.37	Canada advanced with an xG edge (1.38–0.14 xG), winning 0–1.
4 July	v Morocco	0–3	0.84–0.82	1.34	Morocco advanced from a balanced knockout game 0–3 (0.84–0.82 xG).

Knockout rows are not added to group points or group-stage xPts. The score decides advancement; match xPts is chance-profile context.

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