Mexico 1–0 South Korea
Mexico edged a balanced game 1–0 (0.53–0.91 xG).
Quick answers
- ResultWho won Mexico vs South Korea?
- Mexico won 1–0. The xG was Mexico 0.53, South Korea 0.91.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in Mexico vs South Korea?
- South Korea had the better xG profile, leading the chance quality 0.91–0.53, but Mexico won 1–0.
- Fair resultWas Mexico 1–0 South Korea fair by xG?
- No. Mexico won the scoreboard, but South Korea had the stronger xG profile.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Mexico took 3 points from 0.98 xPts (Δ +2.02), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
- Ranking contextWas Mexico 1–0 South Korea a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Not on the scoreboard, but the lower-ranked side had the stronger xG profile. South Korea entered 23rd of 48 in the World Cup field; Mexico entered 13th of 48. South Korea lost after Mexico 1–0 South Korea despite leading xG 0.91–0.53.
| Score | 1–0 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Mexico 0.53 · South Korea 0.91 |
| Expected points (xPts) | Mexico 0.98 · South Korea 1.65 |
| Stage | Group A |
| Published FIFA rank | Mexico FIFA #14 (13th of 48) · South Korea FIFA #25 (23rd of 48) |
Who had the better xG in Mexico vs South Korea?
South Korea created the better chances — 0.91–0.53 xG, an edge of 0.38. Yet Mexico won 1–0, a result that defied the expected goals. In expected points, Mexico earned 0.98 and South Korea 1.65 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +2.02 for Mexico, -1.65 for South Korea).
Was Mexico lucky or unlucky?
Mexico were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.53 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 0.91 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +2.02).
Was South Korea lucky or unlucky?
South Korea were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 0.91 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.53 xGA). On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.65).
What Mexico 1–0 South Korea means for Group A
Mexico sit 1st in Group A on 9 points (5.68 xPts, Δ +3.32); South Korea sit 3rd on 3 points (5.09 xPts, Δ -2.09). See the full Group A table →
18 June xG recap · Mexico · South Korea · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results