Mexico 1–0 South Korea

The xG verdict

Mexico edged a balanced game 1–0 (0.53–0.91 xG).

Quick answers

ResultWho won Mexico vs South Korea?
Mexico won 1–0. The xG was Mexico 0.53, South Korea 0.91.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Mexico vs South Korea?
South Korea had the better xG profile, leading the chance quality 0.91–0.53, but Mexico won 1–0.
Fair resultWas Mexico 1–0 South Korea fair by xG?
No. Mexico won the scoreboard, but South Korea had the stronger xG profile.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Mexico took 3 points from 0.98 xPts (Δ +2.02), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
Ranking contextWas Mexico 1–0 South Korea a published FIFA ranking upset?
Not on the scoreboard, but the lower-ranked side had the stronger xG profile. South Korea entered 23rd of 48 in the World Cup field; Mexico entered 13th of 48. South Korea lost after Mexico 1–0 South Korea despite leading xG 0.91–0.53.
Score1–0
Expected goals (xG)Mexico 0.53 · South Korea 0.91
Expected points (xPts)Mexico 0.98 · South Korea 1.65
StageGroup A
Published FIFA rankMexico FIFA #14 (13th of 48) · South Korea FIFA #25 (23rd of 48)

Who had the better xG in Mexico vs South Korea?

South Korea created the better chances — 0.91–0.53 xG, an edge of 0.38. Yet Mexico won 1–0, a result that defied the expected goals. In expected points, Mexico earned 0.98 and South Korea 1.65 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +2.02 for Mexico, -1.65 for South Korea).

Was Mexico lucky or unlucky?

Mexico were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.53 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 0.91 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +2.02).

Was South Korea lucky or unlucky?

South Korea were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 0.91 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.53 xGA). On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.65).

What Mexico 1–0 South Korea means for Group A

Mexico sit 1st in Group A on 9 points (5.68 xPts, Δ +3.32); South Korea sit 3rd on 3 points (5.09 xPts, Δ -2.09). See the full Group A table →

18 June xG recap · Mexico · South Korea · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results