World Cup 2026 xG story · 20 June
Ecuador out-chanced Curacao by a distance — and still drew 0–0
Ecuador piled up the chances and Curacao held firm. By expected goals this was one of the most lopsided stalemates of the group stage — a result that flatters Curacao far more than the run of play did.
- Score: Ecuador 0–0 Curacao
- xG: Ecuador 2.84–0.50 Curacao
- xPts: Ecuador 2.66, Curacao 0.23
- Points swing: Ecuador Δ -1.66, Curacao Δ +0.77
Quick answers
- Who won Ecuador vs Curacao?
- Ecuador and Curacao drew 0–0. The xG was Ecuador 2.84, Curacao 0.50.
- What was the xG in Ecuador vs Curacao?
- Ecuador finished with 2.84 xG and Curacao with 0.50 xG.
- Was Ecuador 0–0 Curacao fair by xG?
- Ecuador created the better chances — 2.84–0.50 xG, an edge of 2.34. But it finished 0–0, Ecuador unable to convert the better chances. In expected points, Ecuador earned 2.66 and Curacao 0.23 from this game; the actual return was 1 and 1 (Δ -1.66 for Ecuador, +0.77 for Curacao).
Why Ecuador will feel robbed
A scoreless draw splits the points evenly, but the chance ledger did not. Ecuador built the kind of chance volume that wins this match far more often than not, and walked away with one point. That is exactly the gap xGQuadrant exists to surface: the scoreboard says level, the expected goals say a return was left on the pitch.
What the expected goals say
Ecuador created the better chances — 2.84–0.50 xG, an edge of 2.34. But it finished 0–0, Ecuador unable to convert the better chances. In expected points, Ecuador earned 2.66 and Curacao 0.23 from this game; the actual return was 1 and 1 (Δ -1.66 for Ecuador, +0.77 for Curacao).
How each side fared
Ecuador were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 2.84 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (0 from 0.50 xGA). On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.66).
Curacao were about on script in attack — 0 from 0.50 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 2.84 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +0.77).
What it means for the tournament luck table
See the full Ecuador vs Curacao xG breakdown, the Ecuador luck tracker and Curacao luck tracker, or put it in context against the biggest xG robberies, the unluckiest teams and the overperformers of the World Cup 2026.