World Cup 2026 xG story · 22 June

Argentina 2–0 Austria: a measured win the chances back up

Argentina never trailed the chance count. The 2–0 scoreline matches an expected-goals edge that was comfortable without being overwhelming — a professional job rather than a robbery in either direction.

The xG case file

Quick answers

Who won Argentina vs Austria?
Argentina won 2–0. The xG was Argentina 2.36, Austria 0.53.
What was the xG in Argentina vs Austria?
Argentina finished with 2.36 xG and Austria with 0.53 xG.
Was Argentina 2–0 Austria fair by xG?
Argentina created the better chances — 2.36–0.53 xG, an edge of 1.83. And Argentina duly won 2–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Argentina earned 2.50 and Austria 0.35 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +0.50 for Argentina, -0.35 for Austria).

A win the chances back up

Not every big-name win survives an xG check; this one does. Argentina created the clearer openings and limited Austria to little of substance, so the two-goal margin reads as earned rather than flattering. It is the quieter end of the luck table — results and chances pointing the same way.

What the expected goals say

Argentina created the better chances — 2.36–0.53 xG, an edge of 1.83. And Argentina duly won 2–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Argentina earned 2.50 and Austria 0.35 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +0.50 for Argentina, -0.35 for Austria).

How each side fared

Argentina were about on script in attack — 2 from 2.36 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 0.53 xGA faced. A fair return for the performance (Δ +0.50).

Austria were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 0.53 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (2 from 2.36 xGA). A fair return for the performance (Δ -0.35).

What it means for the tournament luck table

See the full Argentina vs Austria xG breakdown, the Argentina luck tracker and Austria luck tracker, or put it in context against the biggest xG robberies, the unluckiest teams and the overperformers of the World Cup 2026.