Croatia 2–1 Ghana
Croatia edged a balanced game 2–1 (0.42–0.64 xG).
Quick answers
- ResultWho won Croatia vs Ghana?
- Croatia won 2–1. The xG was Croatia 0.42, Ghana 0.64.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in Croatia vs Ghana?
- The xG was close to level (Croatia 0.42, Ghana 0.64), so Croatia's 2–1 win was narrow rather than a major points-vs-xPts swing.
- Fair resultWas Croatia 2–1 Ghana fair by xG?
- Mostly. The winner was not clearly ahead on xG, but the chance gap was small enough that this was a close result rather than a robbery.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Croatia took 3 points from 1.06 xPts (Δ +1.94), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
- Ranking contextWas Croatia 2–1 Ghana a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Not on the scoreboard, but the lower-ranked side had the stronger xG profile. Ghana entered 45th of 48 in the World Cup field; Croatia entered 11th of 48. Ghana lost after Croatia 2–1 Ghana despite leading xG 0.64–0.42.
Croatia finished second despite a negative xG profile: Croatia took 6 points from 3.47 xPts and a 2.77-4.39 xG profile. The swing was beating Ghana despite Ghana edging that match 0.64-0.42 on xG.
| Score | 2–1 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Croatia 0.42 · Ghana 0.64 |
| Expected points (xPts) | Croatia 1.06 · Ghana 1.49 |
| Stage | Group L |
| Published FIFA rank | Croatia FIFA #11 (11th of 48) · Ghana FIFA #73 (45th of 48) |
Who had the better xG in Croatia vs Ghana?
By expected goals, Croatia vs Ghana was a near-even contest — Croatia 0.42 xG, Ghana 0.64. Croatia took the points 2–1, but the underlying chances were close to level. In expected points, Croatia earned 1.06 and Ghana 1.49 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +1.94 for Croatia, -1.49 for Ghana).
Was Croatia lucky or unlucky?
Croatia were clinical in front of goal — 2 goals from 0.42 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 0.64 xGA). On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +1.94).
Was Ghana lucky or unlucky?
Ghana were about on script in attack — 1 from 0.64 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 2 from only 0.42 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -1.49).
What Croatia 2–1 Ghana means for Group L
Croatia sit 2nd in Group L on 6 points (3.47 xPts, Δ +2.53); Ghana sit 3rd on 4 points (3.66 xPts, Δ +0.34). See the full Group L table →
27 June xG recap · Croatia · Ghana · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results