How lucky or unlucky were Iraq in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 0 points from 0.86 xPts (points luck -0.86) and 12 goals conceded from 8.20 xGA (defensive luck -3.80). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Iraq's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Iraq's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Iraq have 1.57 group-stage xGF and 8.20 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Iraq's best xG match?

Iraq's highest-xGF match was 1–4 vs Norway: 0.80 xG for and 2.52 xG against.

Iraq at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Iraq did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Iraq finished fourth in Group I with 0 points from 0.86 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.86).

Iraq had 1 goal from 1.57 xG (finishing luck -0.57) and 0 points from 0.86 xPts (points luck -0.86) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Iraq

Latest xG match

0–5 vs Senegal

Group I · xG 0.14-3.01

Group table

Group I finish

0 points from 0.86 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Iraq qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Iraq did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Iraq finished fourth in Group I with 0 points from 0.86 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.86).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Iraq in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 0 points from 0.86 xPts (points luck -0.86) and 12 goals conceded from 8.20 xGA (defensive luck -3.80). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Iraq's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Iraq finish in Group I?: Iraq finished fourth in Group I with 0 points from 0.86 group-stage xPts (Δ -0.86).
xG by stageWhat are Iraq's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Iraq have 1.57 group-stage xGF and 8.20 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Iraq's best xG match?: Iraq's highest-xGF match was 1–4 vs Norway: 0.80 xG for and 2.52 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	1–12	1.57 / 8.20	-6.63	0.86	Official group-table scope
Total	3	1–12	1.57 / 8.20	-6.63	0.86	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

1-4 vs NorwayxG 0.80-2.52 · xPts 0.45 · Δ -0.45
0-3 vs FrancexG 0.63-2.67 · xPts 0.32 · Δ -0.32
0-5 vs SenegalxG 0.14-3.01 · xPts 0.09 · Δ -0.09

Schedule context

Iraq are -6.63 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 12.7/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #13.3 globally; trailed xG against a strong opponent field.

Group	Group I · 4th in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #63 · 42nd of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 12.7 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #13.3 · trailed xG against a strong opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 0W 0D 3L
Group-stage points	0
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	0.86
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-0.86
Group-stage goals for / against	1 / 12
Group-stage xG for / against	1.57 / 8.20
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.57
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-3.80

Where Iraq sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Iraq sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are deserved better.

See Iraq on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Iraq 1–4 Norway

Iraq had their strongest chance profile against Norway, winning the xG battle 0.80–2.52.

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
16 June	v Norway	1–4	0.80–2.52	0.45	-0.45
22 June	@ France	0–3	0.63–2.67	0.32	-0.32
26 June	@ Senegal	0–5	0.14–3.01	0.09	-0.09

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Iraq took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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