How lucky or unlucky were Czechia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?

Group-stage totals: 1 point from 2.18 xPts (points luck -1.18) and 6 goals conceded from 5.42 xGA (defensive luck -0.58). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Czechia's group-stage luck built game by game.

What are Czechia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?

Czechia have 2.38 group-stage xGF and 5.42 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.

What was Czechia's best xG match?

Czechia's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs South Africa: 1.02 xG for and 1.38 xG against.

Czechia at the 2026 World Cup

Group exit

Czechia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Czechia finished fourth in Group A with 1 point from 2.18 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.18).

Czechia had 2 goals from 2.38 xG (finishing luck -0.38) and 1 point from 2.18 xPts (points luck -1.18) in the World Cup 2026 group stage.

Next for Czechia

Latest xG match

0–3 vs Mexico

Group A · xG 0.53-1.74

Group table

Group A finish

1 point from 2.18 group-stage xPts. Official group rank decides qualification.

Results

All scores with xG

Every finished match, scoreline, match xG and one-line verdict.

Quick answers

Group exitDid Czechia qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockouts?: Czechia did not qualify for the World Cup 2026 knockout stage. Czechia finished fourth in Group A with 1 point from 2.18 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.18).
Group-stage verdictHow lucky or unlucky were Czechia in the World Cup 2026 group stage?: Group-stage totals: 1 point from 2.18 xPts (points luck -1.18) and 6 goals conceded from 5.42 xGA (defensive luck -0.58). The group-stage match-by-match xG table below shows how Czechia's group-stage luck built game by game.
Group finishWhere did Czechia finish in Group A?: Czechia finished fourth in Group A with 1 point from 2.18 group-stage xPts (Δ -1.18).
xG by stageWhat are Czechia's group, knockout and total xG numbers?: Czechia have 2.38 group-stage xGF and 5.42 group-stage xGA. No knockout xG is recorded for them yet.
Best xG matchWhat was Czechia's best xG match?: Czechia's highest-xGF match was 1–1 vs South Africa: 1.02 xG for and 1.38 xG against.

xG by stage

Stage	Matches	Goals	xGF / xGA	xGD	xPts	Scope
Group stage	3	2–6	2.38 / 5.42	-3.04	2.18	Official group-table scope
Total	3	2–6	2.38 / 5.42	-3.04	2.18	All completed xG-backed matches

Group-stage match receipts

1-2 vs South KoreaxG 0.83-2.30 · xPts 0.53 · Δ -0.53
1-1 vs South AfricaxG 1.02-1.38 · xPts 1.10 · Δ -0.10
0-3 vs MexicoxG 0.53-1.74 · xPts 0.55 · Δ -0.55

Schedule context

Czechia are -3.04 xGD through 3 xG matches against opponents averaging 25.0/48 in the World Cup field and FIFA #32.0 globally; trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field.

Group	Group A · 4th in group
Knockout status	Group exit Group-stage exit
Published FIFA rank	FIFA #48 · 35th of 48 World Cup teams
xG vs schedule	Avg opponent field rank 25.0 / 48 · Avg opponent FIFA #32.0 · trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field
Group-stage played / record	3 · 0W 1D 2L
Group-stage points	1
Group-stage expected points (xPts)	2.18
Group-stage Δ (Points − xPts)	-1.18
Group-stage goals for / against	2 / 6
Group-stage xG for / against	2.38 / 5.42
Group-stage finishing (Goals − xG)	-0.38
Group-stage defensive luck (xGA − GA)	-0.58

Where Czechia sit on the total xG luck quadrant

Where Czechia sit across all xG-backed matches so far — finishing luck (goals − xG) across, defensive luck (xGA − goals conceded) up; the crosshair is zero, exactly as the chances suggest. On the balance of play they are deserved better.

See Czechia on the full interactive luck quadrant →

Best and worst group-stage xG matches

Best xG performance

Czechia 1–1 South Africa

Czechia had their strongest chance profile against South Africa, winning the xG battle 1.02–1.38.

Most unlucky result

Czechia vs Mexico

Czechia took 0 points from 0.55 xPts (Δ -0.55).

Group-stage match by match

Group-stage match-by-match luck — points taken minus expected points (xPts) each game. Green = took more than the chances deserved, red = deserved more.

Date	Match	Score	Group xG	xPts	Δ
11 June	@ South Korea	1–2	0.83–2.30	0.53	-0.53
18 June	v South Africa	1–1	1.02–1.38	1.10	-0.10
24 June	v Mexico	0–3	0.53–1.74	0.55	-0.55

Δ here is per group-stage match: the points Czechia took that game minus their expected points (xPts) for it. Negative = robbed, positive = fortunate.

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