World Cup 2026 group-stage xG by confederation
By the completed group-stage numbers, South American (CONMEBOL) sides had the best xG difference — +0.66 per team-game. CONMEBOL teams banked the most group-stage points-vs-xPts luck (+0.10 per team-game). Everything is per team-game because each confederation sends a different number of teams.
Schedule context: CONMEBOL have the strongest positive group-stage xG read among confederations that faced a real schedule test (27.2 / 48, FIFA #38.2 avg); led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field. See team-level schedule strength →
| Confederation | Teams | Group xGD/g | Group Δ/g | Fin/g | DefLuck/g | Avg opp field | Avg opp FIFA | xG vs schedule read | Over–Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONMEBOL South America | 6/6 | +0.66 | +0.10 | -0.10 | +0.16 | 27.2 / 48 | #38.2 | led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field | 3–2 |
| UEFA Europe | 16/16 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.44 | -0.21 | 26.9 / 48 | #36.8 | led xG against a mid-ranked opponent field | 6–3 |
| CAF Africa | 10/10 | -0.06 | +0.03 | +0.18 | -0.22 | 22.3 / 48 | #30.8 | were level on xG against a mid-ranked opponent field | 4–3 |
| CONCACAF North & Central America | 6/6 | -0.30 | -0.12 | +0.18 | -0.05 | 24.5 / 48 | #31.1 | trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field | 2–3 |
| AFC Asia | 9/9 | -0.84 | -0.28 | +0.04 | -0.45 | 21.7 / 48 | #27.9 | trailed xG against a mid-ranked opponent field | 1–7 |
Teams = sides with published group-stage xG out of the confederation's total at the tournament. Per game = confederation totals divided by xG match team-games. Avg opp field and Avg opp FIFA are the average World Cup field rank and published FIFA rank of group-stage opponents, weighted by xG matches. xGD = expected goals for minus against; Δ = group points minus group-stage expected points (xPts); Fin = goals minus xG; DefLuck = xGA minus goals conceded; Over–Under counts teams beating / missing their group-stage xPts by more than half a point.
Per-confederation tables: UEFA · CONMEBOL · CAF · AFC · CONCACAF