World Cup 2026 by confederation — who's over- and under-performing?
By the underlying numbers, European (UEFA) sides have the best xG difference so far — +0.77 per game.AFC teams have banked the most luck (+0.25 points vs expected per game). Everything is per game, since each confederation sends a different number of teams — and with one match each so far, treat it as a first read, not a verdict.
| Confederation | Teams | xGD/g | Δ/g | Fin/g | DefLuck/g | Over–Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europe | 16/16 | +0.77 | -0.12 | +0.52 | -0.34 | 5–5 |
| CONMEBOL South America | 5/6 | +0.10 | -0.45 | +0.04 | -0.34 | 1–3 |
| CONCACAF North & Central America | 6/6 | -0.30 | -0.24 | +0.28 | -0.47 | 2–3 |
| CAF Africa | 10/10 | -0.54 | +0.02 | -0.06 | -0.30 | 3–4 |
| AFC Asia | 8/9 | -0.66 | +0.25 | +0.49 | -0.08 | 3–2 |
Teams = sides with published xG out of the confederation's total at the tournament. Per game = confederation totals divided by total team-games played. xGD = expected goals for minus against; Δ = points minus expected points (xPts); Fin = goals minus xG; DefLuck = xGA minus goals conceded; Over–Under counts teams beating / missing their xPts by more than half a point.
Per-confederation tables: UEFA · CONMEBOL · CAF · AFC · CONCACAF