Panama 0–1 Croatia

The xG verdict

Croatia backed up their xG edge (1.65–0.55 xG), winning 0–1.

Quick answers

ResultWho won Panama vs Croatia?
Croatia won 1–0. The xG was Panama 0.55, Croatia 1.65.
Better xGWho had the better xG in Panama vs Croatia?
Croatia had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.65–0.55 and winning 1–0.
Fair resultWas Panama 0–1 Croatia fair by xG?
Yes. Croatia won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Croatia turned a clear xG edge (1.65–0.55) into the full three points, finishing with 2.17 xPts (Δ +0.83).
Ranking contextWas Panama 0–1 Croatia a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. Panama entered 30th of 48 in the World Cup field; Croatia entered 11th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.65–0.55.
Score0–1
Expected goals (xG)Panama 0.55 · Croatia 1.65
Expected points (xPts)Panama 0.60 · Croatia 2.17
StageGroup L
Published FIFA rankPanama FIFA #34 (30th of 48) · Croatia FIFA #11 (11th of 48)

Who had the better xG in Panama vs Croatia?

Croatia created the better chances — 1.65–0.55 xG, an edge of 1.10. And Croatia duly won 1–0, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, Panama earned 0.60 and Croatia 2.17 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -0.60 for Panama, +0.83 for Croatia).

Was Panama lucky or unlucky?

Panama were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 0.55 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 1 from 1.65 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.60).

Was Croatia lucky or unlucky?

Croatia were wasteful in front of goal — just 1 from 1.65 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 0.55 xGA faced. A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +0.83).

What Panama 0–1 Croatia means for Group L

Panama sit 4th in Group L on 0 points (2.27 xPts, Δ -2.27); Croatia sit 2nd on 6 points (3.47 xPts, Δ +2.53). See the full Group L table →

23 June xG recap · Panama · Croatia · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results