Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay
Turkiye dominated the chances (2.10–0.32 xG) but lost 0–1 — robbed by the scoreboard.
Quick answers
- Deserved winnerWho deserved to win Turkiye vs Paraguay?
- Turkiye deserved more by xG, leading the chance quality 2.10–0.32, but Paraguay won 0–1.
- Fair resultWas Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay fair by xG?
- No. Paraguay won the scoreboard, but Turkiye had the stronger xG profile.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- Paraguay took 3 points from 0.30 xPts (Δ +2.70), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
- Ranking contextWas Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Yes on the scoreboard, but not by xG. Paraguay entered 33rd of 48 in the World Cup field; Turkiye entered 20th of 48. Paraguay won 0–1, while the xG was 0.32–2.10 from the lower-ranked team's view.
| Score | 0–1 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | Turkiye 2.10 · Paraguay 0.32 |
| Expected points (xPts) | Turkiye 2.54 · Paraguay 0.30 |
| Group | Group D |
| Published FIFA rank | Turkiye FIFA #22 (20th of 48) · Paraguay FIFA #41 (33rd of 48) |
Who deserved to win Turkiye vs Paraguay by xG?
Turkiye created the better chances — 2.10–0.32 xG, an edge of 1.78. Yet Paraguay won 0–1, a result that defied the expected goals. In expected points, Turkiye earned 2.54 and Paraguay 0.30 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -2.54 for Turkiye, +2.70 for Paraguay).
Was Turkiye lucky or unlucky?
Turkiye were wasteful in front of goal — just 0 from 2.10 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 1 from only 0.32 xGA faced. On balance they deserved more (Δ -2.54).
Was Paraguay lucky or unlucky?
Paraguay were clinical in front of goal — 1 goal from 0.32 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 0 from 2.10 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +2.70).
What Turkiye 0–1 Paraguay means for Group D
Turkiye sit 4th in Group D on 0 points (4.04 xPts, Δ -4.04); Paraguay sit 3rd on 3 points (0.99 xPts, Δ +2.01). See the full Group D table →