New Zealand 1–3 Egypt

The xG verdict

Egypt edged a balanced game 1–3 (1.24–1.87 xG).

Quick answers

ResultWho won New Zealand vs Egypt?
Egypt won 3–1. The xG was New Zealand 1.24, Egypt 1.87.
Better xGWho had the better xG in New Zealand vs Egypt?
Egypt had the better xG profile, creating the better chances 1.87–1.24 and winning 3–1.
Fair resultWas New Zealand 1–3 Egypt fair by xG?
Yes. Egypt won both the scoreboard and the xG battle.
Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
Egypt turned a clear xG edge (1.87–1.24) into the full three points, finishing with 1.79 xPts (Δ +1.21).
Ranking contextWas New Zealand 1–3 Egypt a published FIFA ranking upset?
No. New Zealand entered 48th of 48 in the World Cup field; Egypt entered 26th of 48. The higher-ranked side got the result and had the stronger xG profile, 1.87–1.24.
Score1–3
Expected goals (xG)New Zealand 1.24 · Egypt 1.87
Expected points (xPts)New Zealand 0.98 · Egypt 1.79
StageGroup G
Published FIFA rankNew Zealand FIFA #85 (48th of 48) · Egypt FIFA #29 (26th of 48)

Who had the better xG in New Zealand vs Egypt?

Egypt created the better chances — 1.87–1.24 xG, an edge of 0.63. And Egypt duly won 3–1, the result matching the run of chances. In expected points, New Zealand earned 0.98 and Egypt 1.79 from this game; the actual return was 0 and 3 (Δ -0.98 for New Zealand, +1.21 for Egypt).

Was New Zealand lucky or unlucky?

New Zealand were about on script in attack — 1 from 1.24 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 3 from only 1.87 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -0.98).

Was Egypt lucky or unlucky?

Egypt were clinical in front of goal — 3 goals from 1.87 xG, and conceded about what their defending deserved (1 from 1.24 xGA). A result backed by the stronger chance profile on the day (Δ +1.21).

What New Zealand 1–3 Egypt means for Group G

New Zealand sit 4th in Group G on 1 point (2.25 xPts, Δ -1.25); Egypt sit 2nd on 5 points (3.63 xPts, Δ +1.37). See the full Group G table →

21 June xG recap · New Zealand · Egypt · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results