England 4–2 Croatia
Croatia dominated the chances (6.14–1.37 xG) but lost 4–2 — a full-point xPts robbery.
Quick answers
- ResultWho won England vs Croatia?
- England won 4–2. The xG was England 1.37, Croatia 6.14.
- Better xGWho had the better xG in England vs Croatia?
- Croatia had the better xG profile, leading the chance quality 6.14–1.37, but England won 4–2.
- Fair resultWas England 4–2 Croatia fair by xG?
- No. England won the scoreboard, but Croatia had the stronger xG profile.
- Biggest xG takeawayWhat was the biggest xG takeaway?
- England took 3 points from 0.09 xPts (Δ +2.91), the biggest points-vs-chances swing in the match.
- Ranking contextWas England 4–2 Croatia a published FIFA ranking upset?
- Not on the scoreboard, but the lower-ranked side had the stronger xG profile. Croatia entered 13th of 48 in the World Cup field; England entered 4th of 48. Croatia lost after England 4–2 Croatia despite leading xG 6.14–1.37.
| Score | 4–2 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals (xG) | England 1.37 · Croatia 6.14 |
| Expected points (xPts) | England 0.09 · Croatia 2.73 |
| Stage | Group L |
| Published FIFA rank | England FIFA #4 (4th of 48) · Croatia FIFA #13 (13th of 48) |
Who had the better xG in England vs Croatia?
Croatia created the better chances — 6.14–1.37 xG, an edge of 4.77. Yet England won 4–2, a result that defied the expected goals. In expected points, England earned 0.09 and Croatia 2.73 from this game; the actual return was 3 and 0 (Δ +2.91 for England, -2.73 for Croatia).
Was England lucky or unlucky?
England were clinical in front of goal — 4 goals from 1.37 xG, and well protected at the back, conceding 2 from 6.14 xGA faced. On balance a fortunate return — more than the chances merited (Δ +2.91).
Was Croatia lucky or unlucky?
Croatia were wasteful in front of goal — just 2 from 6.14 xG, but punished at the back, shipping 4 from only 1.37 xGA faced. On balance their result return trailed the chances (Δ -2.73).
What England 4–2 Croatia means for Group L
England sit 1st in Group L on 7 points (4.44 xPts, Δ +2.56); Croatia sit 2nd on 6 points (5.96 xPts, Δ +0.04). See the full Group L table →
17 June xG recap · England · Croatia · xG robberies · stat leaders · ← All results